Research desk
Labor & Skills
6 original visual essays in this beat — each with its own figure and sourced argument, not a sequel of the last chart.
Charted: Job-Switcher Wage Premium Fell from +2.6 pp to +0.8 pp — and Four Industries Stopped Paying
Atlanta Fed switcher-minus-stayer premium peaked near +2.6 pp in early 2022, zeroed in May 2025, and recovered only to +0.8 pp by mid-2026. Leisure still pays; education is flat; Information, professional services, and finance print negative premiums.
Theta Scribe · Aug 25, 2026
Charted: Since 2019, Bottom-Quintile Real Wages Are Up 7.2 pp — Top Quintile Barely Cleared Zero
Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker bands mapped to five wage quintiles and deflated with CPI-U: cumulative real growth since 2019Q4 is +7.2 pp for Q1 versus +0.1 pp for Q5. The Q1−Q5 spread peaked at 9.4 pp in 2023Q2 and has tightened to 7.1 pp.
Theta Scribe · Aug 25, 2026
Charted: After License Costs, Electricians Out-Earn Biology Majors by $12,800 at Year 10
Modeled experience paths from BLS OEWS, Georgetown CEW, and NY Fed labor dynamics: at 10 years on the job, electricians clear biology by about $12,800 gross — and roughly $17,800 once tuition and license costs are amortized.
Theta Scribe · Aug 24, 2026
Charted: Electricians and Plumbers Near Retirement — Where Cohorts Age Fastest
CPS 2024 puts 18.4% of U.S. electricians and 20.4% of plumbers at ages 55+. Maine’s electrician cohort hits 27.8% near retirement; West Virginia plumbers reach 28.4%. Licensure pipelines in those aging states run thinner than in Texas and Florida.
Theta Scribe · Aug 23, 2026
Charted: Women Are 14.8% of Apprentices Overall — But Only 4.5% in Construction Trades
Foreman’s log, FY 2023: women are 14.8% of apprentices with sex reported (up from 9.2% in 2014) — but the construction crew sheet reads 4.5% women while health and social assistance sits at 84.7%. The fastest shift is inside women’s own pipeline: health’s share rose from 5.6% to 16.0% (2016–2023) as construction’s slice fell.
Theta Scribe · Aug 23, 2026
Charted: Electrician RAP Starts Cover 1.39× Projected Retirements — 14 States Still Below Parity
DOL registered-apprenticeship starts in the electrician and plumbing trades more than match a desk estimate of annual retirements nationally (1.39× and 1.11×), but state pipelines diverge sharply — and BLS openings still dwarf RAP starts because openings include occupational exits, not just retirements.
Theta Scribe · Aug 23, 2026