Theta Scribe
Technology·Visual essay · original analysis

Charted: AI Models Tied for First in Voice and Video Cost 7× to 12× Apart

Theta Scribe Research Desk8 min readRead the figure, then the sourced argument

On blind-vote leaderboards, 7 video models and 7 voice models are statistically tied with the leader, at tracked prices 7× and 12× apart. Across 75 voice models, price barely predicts quality (rank correlation 0.12).

Video quality against priceScatter of 27 text-to-video models: social-media quality score against tracked price per minute with native audio. Seven models are statistically tied with the leader.Leader's 95% interval (1158 to 1218)800900100011001200$1$2$5$10$20$50Tracked price, USD per minute of video with native audio (log scale)Artificial Analysis Elo, social-media sliceSeedance 2.5 $34.12Wan 3.0 $12.00FLUX 3 $17.40MiniMax H3 (768p) $4.80MiniMax H3 Max $4.80Seedance 2.0 $22.45Agnes-Video-2.5 $1.50Statistically tied with #1 (bars: 95% interval)Other priced modelsBest-value frontier
Figure 1. Text-to-video, social-media and creator-content slice, with native audio: 27 priced models. Tracked list price per minute of video against Elo score. The shaded band is the leader's 95% interval; cyan dots are the 6 priced models whose intervals overlap it.
Show the data behind this figure
ModelCreatorElo95% intervalTied with #1Tracked $/min
Dreamina Seedance 2.5ByteDance Seed11881158 to 1218yes$34.12
Wan 3.0Alibaba11691140 to 1198yes$12.00
FLUX 3Black Forest Labs11581128 to 1188yes$17.40
MiniMax H3 (768p)MiniMax11551126 to 1184yes$4.80
MiniMax H3 MaxFal11381104 to 1172yes$4.80
Dreamina Seedance 2.0ByteDance Seed11361106 to 1166yes$22.45
SkyReels V4Skywork AI11081078 to 1138$21.00
Gemini Omni Flash 1.1Google10951067 to 1123$9.12
Agnes-Video-2.5Sapiens AI10891058 to 1120$1.50
Grok Imagine Video 1.5 LiteSpaceXAI1029996 to 1062$8.40
Wan2.7-260612Alibaba1027997 to 1057$9.00
HappyHorse-1.0Alibaba-ATH1025994 to 1056$13.20
Grok Imagine Video 1.5SpaceXAI1022991 to 1053$8.40
Kling 3.0 Omni 1080p (Pro)KlingAI1016984 to 1050$16.80
HappyHorse-1.1Alibaba-ATH1015986 to 1044$9.90
Kling 3.0 1080p (Pro)KlingAI10001000 to 1000$20.16
Veo 3.1 FastGoogle972941 to 1005$9.00
LTX-2.5 FastLightricks971937 to 1005$7.80
PixVerse V6PixVerse968934 to 1002$6.90
Vidu Q3 ProVidu956924 to 988$6.00
Veo 3.1Google937903 to 971$24.00
LTX-2.5 ProLightricks935901 to 969$10.20
Veo 3.1 LiteGoogle923888 to 958$4.80
Vidu Q3 TurboVidu886852 to 920$3.90
LTX-2.3 FastLightricks869833 to 905$3.60
LTX-2.3 ProLightricks861825 to 897$4.80
BorealCreatify825787 to 863$2.69

Pick the best-rated AI video generator on a blind-vote leaderboard and you will find it is not alone. Artificial Analysis' text-to-video arena ranks 29 models with native audio on social-media and creator content. The leader, Dreamina Seedance 2.5, scores 1188 Elo with a 95% interval of 1158 to 1218. Six other models have intervals that overlap it, so the votes cannot reliably separate them from the leader. Six of the seven carry a tracked price, and those prices run from $4.80 to $34.12 per minute of finished video: a 7.1× spread for results that voters could not tell apart.

Voice shows the same pattern, more sharply. On the speech arena's entertainment board, seven of 89 models tie for first, and all seven have a tracked price, from $0.0066 per minute (Simba 3.2) to $0.08 per minute (Eleven v4). That is a 12× spread. Across the 75 voice models that have both a price and an entertainment score, the rank correlation between price and quality is 0.12, close to no relationship. Video prices carry more signal (0.45 across 27 models), but the top of the board is crowded there too.

What the numbers are

Everything here comes from a database built on October 11, 2026. It converts every price to US dollars per minute and sets it beside published quality scores: 265 models, 639 price rows (366 read from providers' own pages, 232 of those subscription or credit plans, and 273 tracked by Artificial Analysis or LMArena) and 4,661 scores from 13 benchmarks. Quality means blind human preference: listeners or viewers pick the better of two outputs, and the votes become Elo-style scores with a 95% interval. Scores from different boards are not comparable, so each figure compares models inside a single board. “Statistically tied” below means a model's interval overlaps the leader's.

Video: seven models share the top, at prices 7× apart

Figure 1 (above) plots each priced model's social-media score against its tracked price per minute of video with native audio, on a log scale. The dashed line joins the best-value frontier: the models that no other model beats on both score and price. It has four members: Agnes-Video-2.5 ($1.50 per minute, 1089 Elo), MiniMax H3 at 768p ($4.80, 1155), Wan 3.0 ($12.00, 1169) and Seedance 2.5 ($34.12, 1188).

The top of that line is the expensive part. Moving from MiniMax H3 to Seedance 2.5 costs 7.1× as much for 33 more Elo points. At that gap the Elo formula implies Seedance 2.5 would win about 55% of head-to-head votes against MiniMax H3, so a real edge, but a small one, and the two intervals overlap. Wan 3.0 sits in between: 19 points below the leader at 35% of its tracked price.

Two of these tracked prices disagree with the provider's own page. Seedance 2.5 is tracked at $34.12 per minute while BytePlus lists $18.18 at 720p; at the lower figure the premium over MiniMax H3 shrinks from 7.1× to 3.8×. MiniMax H3 Max is tracked at $4.80 and MiniMax's page lists $3.00 at 480p. Confirm the resolution you need before budgeting.

Voice: price barely predicts what listeners prefer

Voice quality against priceScatter of 75 voice models: entertainment-board quality score against tracked price per minute. Seven models are statistically tied with the leader.Leader's 95% interval (1241 to 1333)8009001000110012001300$0.001$0.01$0.10Tracked price, USD per minute of speech (log scale)Artificial Analysis Elo, entertainment boardEleven v4 Turbo $0.04Eleven v4 $0.08Qwen 3.1 TTS Plus $0.0193Qwen 3.0 TTS Plus $0.0193Gemini 3.8 Flash TTS $0.0165Sonic 3.6 $0.049Simba 3.2 $0.0066same score, 2x the priceStatistically tied with #1 (bars: 95% interval)Other priced modelsBest-value frontier
Figure 2. Speech arena, entertainment board: 75 priced models. Tracked list price per minute of speech against Elo score. Cyan dots are the 7 models whose intervals overlap the leader's; all 7 are priced.
Show the data behind this figure
ModelCreatorElo95% intervalTied with #1Tracked $/min
Eleven v4ElevenLabs12871241 to 1333yes$0.08
Eleven v4 TurboElevenLabs12861235 to 1337yes$0.04
Qwen-Audio-3.1-TTS-PlusAlibaba12501203 to 1297yes$0.0193
Gemini 3.8 Flash TTSGoogle12491208 to 1290yes$0.0165
Qwen-Audio-3.0-TTS-PlusAlibaba12301190 to 1270yes$0.0193
Simba 3.2SpeechifyAI12141179 to 1249yes$0.0066
Sonic 3.6Cartesia12081168 to 1248yes$0.049
v3 ConversationalElevenLabs11921154 to 1230$0.05
Realtime TTS-2Inworld11861144 to 1228$0.0208
Gemini 3.8 Flash-Lite TTSGoogle11861148 to 1224$0.011
Gemini 3.1 Flash TTSGoogle11841152 to 1214$0.0183
Luna TTSVUI Labs11631130 to 1196$0.015
Realtime TTS-2 FlashInworld11591121 to 1197$0.0104
StepAudio 2.5 TTS (Aug 2026)StepFun11551116 to 1194$0.085
Sonic 3.5Cartesia11351103 to 1167$0.049
Breeze TTS 2BreezeBlue11281090 to 1166$0.034
Speech 2.8 HDMiniMax11271098 to 1156$0.10
Eleven v3ElevenLabs11261097 to 1155$0.10
Soniox TTS Real-Time v2Soniox11211092 to 1150$0.0142
Speech 2.8 TurboMiniMax11081080 to 1136$0.06
Step TTS 2 (Mar 2026)StepFun10961063 to 1129$0.04
Lightning V3.1 Pro (Jul 2026)Smallest.ai10861052 to 1120$0.0195
SpaceXAI TTSSpaceXAI10811042 to 1120$0.015
Fish Audio S2.1 ProFish Audio10811047 to 1115$0.015
Gradium TTS (Aug 2026)Gradium10791044 to 1114$0.0472
Speech 2.6 TurboMiniMax10771048 to 1106$0.06
Falcon 2Murf AI10751039 to 1111$0.01
Fish Audio S2 ProFish Audio10751042 to 1108$0.015
Azure HD 2.5Microsoft10741043 to 1105$0.022
Gradium TTS (Sep 2026)Gradium10731034 to 1112$0.0478
Async Flash v1.5async10671034 to 1100$0.0101
Simba 3.0SpeechifyAI10671036 to 1098$0.0066
Speech-02-HDMiniMax10671035 to 1099$0.10
Bland Speech v3Bland AI10581024 to 1092$0.04
Speech 2.6 HDMiniMax10561027 to 1085$0.10
TTS-1 HDOpenAI10531023 to 1083$0.03
Turbo v2.5ElevenLabs10511022 to 1080$0.05
Speech-02-TurboMiniMax10481015 to 1081$0.06
Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite TTSGoogle10461014 to 1078$0.0092
TTS-1OpenAI10441014 to 1074$0.015
T2A-01-HDMiniMax10441012 to 1076$0.05
GPT-Realtime-2OpenAI10441009 to 1077$0.19
Async Pro v1.0async10421008 to 1076$0.0202
OpenAudio S1Fish Audio10391007 to 1071$0.015
Voxtral TTSMistral10371003 to 1071$0.016
Flash v2.5ElevenLabs10361006 to 1066$0.05
Sonic 3Cartesia1029998 to 1060$0.049
Flux TTSDeepgram1028991 to 1065$0.045
Multilingual v2ElevenLabs1026996 to 1056$0.10
StudioGoogle1020988 to 1054$0.16
JourneyGoogle1019985 to 1053$0.16
Gemini 2.5 Flash TTS (Dec 2025)Google1015983 to 1047$0.0092
Octave TTSHume AI1013980 to 1046$0.0875
Chatterbox HDResemble AI1011975 to 1047$0.04
Higgs Audio V3 TTSBoson AI1008973 to 1043$0.015
CodaRime1002968 to 1036$0.05
Zonos-v0.1Zyphra10001000 to 1000$0.02
Octave 2Hume AI999967 to 1031$0.0875
Chirp 3: HDGoogle997965 to 1029$0.03
Polly GenerativeAmazon994959 to 1029$0.03
Async Flash v1.0async993963 to 1023$0.0101
Kokoro 82M v1.0Kokoro992961 to 1023$0.0006
Polly Long-FormAmazon985950 to 1020$0.10
Lightning v3.1Smallest.ai984950 to 1018$0.025
T2A-01-TurboMiniMax963929 to 997$0.03
ChatterboxResemble AI961928 to 994$0.025
Qwen3 TTSAlibaba924890 to 958$0.0138
Murf Speech Gen 2Murf AI909873 to 945$0.10
Qwen3 TTS FlashAlibaba877838 to 916$0.011
WaveNetGoogle872836 to 908$0.004
StandardGoogle870833 to 907$0.004
OpenVoice v2OpenVoice838793 to 883$0.0083
Neural2Google828790 to 868$0.016
Polly StandardAmazon819773 to 865$0.004
Polly NeuralAmazon816775 to 857$0.016

Figure 2 repeats the exercise for speech. The seven models tied with the leader are Simba 3.2 ($0.0066 per minute), Gemini 3.8 Flash TTS ($0.0165), Qwen-Audio-3.1-TTS-Plus and Qwen-Audio-3.0-TTS-Plus ($0.0193 each), Eleven v4 Turbo ($0.04), Sonic 3.6 ($0.049) and Eleven v4 ($0.08). The cleanest example sits inside one product family. Eleven v4 and Eleven v4 Turbo score 1287 and 1286 on the entertainment board, 1308 and 1310 on knowledge sharing, and 1323 and 1327 overall: the same quality within noise. The standard model is tracked at $0.08 per minute and the Turbo variant at $0.04, and ElevenLabs' pricing page carries the same two figures.

Listener preference is not the only thing worth testing. Artificial Analysis also runs a pronunciation test in which reviewers judge whether hard items such as numbers, codes and brand names are said correctly. Among the tied models that have a pass rate, scores range from 74.5% to 91.7%, and price does not order them: Sonic 3.6, the second most expensive, has the lowest.

Voice modelEntertainment EloTracked $/minPronunciation pass rate
Eleven v41287$0.0891.7%
Eleven v4 Turbo1286$0.0490.1%
Gemini 3.8 Flash TTS1249$0.016589.5%
Qwen-Audio-3.1-TTS-Plus1250$0.019384.6%
Simba 3.21214$0.006677.6%
Sonic 3.61208$0.04974.5%

Simba 3.2 ties the leader on listener preference at $0.0066 per minute but passes 77.6% of pronunciation checks, against 90.1% for Eleven v4 Turbo at about six times the price. The two measures agree only moderately (rank correlation 0.67 across 28 shared models), so a cheap voice that ties on taste can still miss more hard items in a script full of numbers. The best trade in the table is Gemini 3.8 Flash TTS: 89.5% at the tracked $0.0165, within a point of Eleven v4 Turbo at under half its price.

Voice prices also move. Google lists Gemini 3.8 Flash TTS at $9 per million audio tokens through December 31, 2026 and $18 from January 1, 2027. At 25 audio tokens per second that is about $0.0135 per minute now and $0.027 after the increase, against the $0.0165 tracked.

Music: the leader is also the cheapest, among the four with a price

Artificial Analysis runs two music arenas, one for instrumentals and one for tracks with vocals, covering 19 models. The arenas publish no prices, so every music price here comes from providers' own pages, and only four models could be priced. Most music tools sell credit plans rather than per-minute API rates, so a music price is the cheapest effective cost per minute across a provider's paid plans and API at full use of the allowance, free tiers excluded. A song is assumed to run three minutes.

Music quality and priceDot plot of 19 AI music models by instrumental arena score; four have a price per minute.900950100010501100Artificial Analysis music arena score (higher is better)Suno v6$0.0040/min ($0.012 per 3-minute song)Suno v6-minino price foundMureka V9no price foundMureka V9.5no price foundLyria 3 Pro$0.0267/min ($0.080 per 3-minute song)Lyria 3.5$0.0267/min ($0.080 per 3-minute song)Eleven Music$0.1485/min ($0.446 per 3-minute song)Stable Audio 3 Largeno price foundEleven Music v2no price foundMiniMax Music 2.5+no price foundMiniMax Music 2.6no price foundEleven Music v2.5no price foundMiniMax Music 3.0no price foundStable Audio 3 Mediumno price foundMelodia v3no price foundStable Audio 2.5no price foundStable Audio 3 Smallno price foundLyria 2no price foundMusicGenno price foundInstrumental, pricedInstrumental, unpricedWith vocals (arena score)
Figure 3. AI music generators ranked on Artificial Analysis' instrumental arena, with the vocals-arena score as an amber diamond. Only the four cyan models could be priced.
Show the data behind this figure
ModelCreatorInstrumentalVocals$/min$ per 3-minute songPrice basis
Suno v6Suno11401142$0.0040$0.012Suno plan, full use of allowance
Suno v6-miniSuno11091116no price found
Mureka V9Mureka10811052no price found
Mureka V9.5Mureka10801103no price found
Lyria 3 ProGoogle10781046$0.0267$0.080Google listed price
Lyria 3.5Google10761052$0.0267$0.080Google listed price
Eleven MusicElevenLabs10211001$0.1485$0.446ElevenLabs plan, full use of allowance
Stable Audio 3 LargeStability.ai1016no price found
Eleven Music v2ElevenLabs10101001no price found
MiniMax Music 2.5+MiniMax1005988no price found
MiniMax Music 2.6MiniMax10021001no price found
Eleven Music v2.5ElevenLabs10021012no price found
MiniMax Music 3.0MiniMax10001000no price found
Stable Audio 3 MediumStability.ai998no price found
Melodia v3Sonauto988978no price found
Stable Audio 2.5Stability.ai986no price found
Stable Audio 3 SmallStability.ai948no price found
Lyria 2Google932no price found
MusicGenMeta881no price found

Of the four priced models, Suno v6 leads both boards (1140 instrumental, 1142 with vocals) at about $0.004 per minute, or $0.012 per three-minute song. Google's Lyria 3 Pro and Lyria 3.5 follow at 1078 and 1076 on the instrumental board and $0.08 per song through the API. Eleven Music scores 1021 at about $0.15 per minute ($0.446 per song). The other 15 models have no price here. That includes Mureka V9 and V9.5, which score between Suno and Lyria on the instrumental board. Their pages were blocked or script-only, or list no price, and MiniMax's paid music API is listed as discontinued. Commercial-use terms vary by plan, so check them before posting generated music on social platforms.

How far to trust the prices

Tracked price against the provider's own pageDot plot of the eight largest gaps between a tracked price and the provider's own pricing page.0.1x0.25x0.5x1x2xProvider's own price as a multiple of the tracked priceGrok Imagine Video 1.5 Lite$8.40 tracked, $1.20 on provider page0.14xDreamina Seedance 2.5$34.12 tracked, $18.18 on provider page0.53xGrok Imagine Video 1.5$8.40 tracked, $4.80 on provider page0.57xMiniMax H3 Max$4.80 tracked, $3.00 on provider page0.62xGemini Omni Flash 1.1$9.12 tracked, $6.00 on provider page0.66xLightning v3.1$0.025 tracked, $0.0175 on provider page0.70xRealtime TTS-2 Flash$0.01 tracked, $0.015 on provider page1.50xGemini 3.1 Flash TTS$0.018 tracked, $0.03 on provider page1.67x
Figure 4. The eight widest gaps between a tracked price and the provider's own pricing page, among 53 models with both. Left of the 1x line the provider's page is cheaper than the tracked price; right of it, dearer.
Show all 19 models that differ by more than 8%
ModelTracked $/minProvider page $/minProvider / tracked
Grok Imagine Video 1.5 Lite$8.40$1.200.14x
Dreamina Seedance 2.5$34.12$18.180.53x
Grok Imagine Video 1.5$8.40$4.800.57x
MiniMax H3 Max$4.80$3.000.62x
Gemini Omni Flash 1.1$9.12$6.000.66x
Lightning v3.1$0.025$0.01750.70x
Eleven v3$0.10$0.080.80x
Flash v2.5$0.05$0.040.80x
Multilingual v2$0.10$0.080.80x
Turbo v2.5$0.05$0.040.80x
v3 Conversational$0.05$0.040.80x
Veo 3.1 Fast$9.00$7.200.80x
Dreamina Seedance 2.0$22.45$18.180.81x
Gemini 3.8 Flash-Lite TTS$0.011$0.0090.82x
Gemini 3.8 Flash TTS$0.016$0.01350.84x
Qwen3 TTS Flash$0.011$0.010.91x
Realtime TTS-2$0.021$0.0251.19x
Realtime TTS-2 Flash$0.01$0.0151.50x
Gemini 3.1 Flash TTS$0.018$0.031.67x

For 53 models the database holds both a tracked price and the provider's own. For 34 of them the two agree within 8%. For 19 they do not. Figure 4 shows the eight widest gaps as the provider's price divided by the tracked price. Provider pages are cheaper than the tracked price in 6 of those eight, and in 16 of all 19 disagreements, so budget from the provider's page for the exact resolution and tier you plan to use.

Do the benchmarks agree?

Rank correlation measures how similarly two boards order the models they share (1 means the same order). The video boards and Artificial Analysis' own slices agree closely, which is why a slice mostly re-ranks the overall order. The voice boards agree less, and the objective pronunciation test only partly follows preference.

ComparisonShared modelsRank correlation
AA overall vs social-media slice, text-to-video (with audio)29+0.96
Artificial Analysis vs LMArena, image-to-video (with audio)17+0.96
Music: instrumental vs vocals arenas13+0.91
Voice: provider voices vs voice cloning38+0.90
Voice: listener preference vs pronunciation pass rate28+0.67
Voice: Artificial Analysis vs Hugging Face TTS Arena17+0.42

One category has no independent score at all. The research behind this database found no independent, per-product benchmark for avatar and talking-head tools such as HeyGen, Synthesia or D-ID; what exists is vendor-run tests and academic benchmarks of research models. For avatar tools the database holds prices only, and quality has to be judged from sample clips.

Caveats and confidence

  • Elo is relative. Scores are comparable only inside one board. Each figure here uses one board.
  • “Tied” is a permissive test. Overlap with the leader's 95% interval says the votes cannot separate a model from the leader, not that the two are equal.
  • Arenas measure typical prompts and raters, not your brand voice or niche. Re-test a shortlist on your own scripts.
  • Tracked prices are list prices at default settings. Real cost depends on resolution, audio, plan and unused credits. Figure 4 shows where a provider's page disagrees.
  • Music is thin. Four of 19 models are priced. Suno's price assumes a three-minute song and full use of a plan's credits, and unused credits raise it.
  • Missing is not zero. Providers whose pages could not be read are absent from the price comparison. A $0 price, such as the one on MiMo-V2.5-TTS, is a promotion with no end date.
  • Vintages differ. Artificial Analysis and Hugging Face data were captured on October 11, 2026; LMArena's vote cutoff is September 21, 2026. Prices change.

Bottom line for desks

In these arenas, a price is a weak guide to quality: nearly none in voice (0.12), modest in video (0.45). A better rule is to shortlist by the leader's interval, not the leader. Anything whose interval overlaps it is a candidate, and the cheapest candidate that passes your own test is the one to buy. On this snapshot that means tracked video prices from $4.80 per minute against $34.12, and voices from $0.0066 per minute against $0.08, subject to the pronunciation check for voice, the provider-page check for video, and a listen on your own material.

  1. [AA Speech]Artificial Analysis — Text to Speech arena, provider-voice leaderboard (entertainment, knowledge-sharing and overall slices) and pronunciation robustness test. https://artificialanalysis.ai/text-to-speech/leaderboard/provider-voice
  2. [AA Speech prices]Artificial Analysis — text-to-speech providers: tracked price per 1M characters, normalized here to USD per minute. https://artificialanalysis.ai/text-to-speech/providers
  3. [AA Video]Artificial Analysis — text-to-video arena v2.0 (social-media and creator-content slice, with audio). https://artificialanalysis.ai/video/leaderboard/text-to-video
  4. [AA Video prices]Artificial Analysis — video providers: tracked list price per minute. https://artificialanalysis.ai/video/providers
  5. [AA Music]Artificial Analysis — music arena, instrumental and vocals leaderboards. https://artificialanalysis.ai/music/leaderboard/instrumental
  6. [LMArena]LMArena (arena.ai) — text-to-video leaderboard, vote cutoff Sept 21, 2026, used for the benchmark-agreement table. https://arena.ai/leaderboard/video/text-to-video
  7. [HF TTS Arena]TTS-AGI / Hugging Face — TTS Arena V2, used for the benchmark-agreement table. https://huggingface.co/spaces/TTS-AGI/TTS-Arena-V2
  8. [BytePlus]BytePlus ModelArk billing — Seedance 2.5 and 2.0 provider price ($18.18 per minute at 720p). https://docs.byteplus.com/en/docs/byteplus_las/Large_model_billing
  9. [Google AI pricing]Google — Gemini API pricing, Gemini TTS audio-token prices and the January 1, 2027 change. https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/pricing
  10. [ElevenLabs]ElevenLabs — API pricing and plans (voice and Eleven Music). https://elevenlabs.io/pricing/api
  11. [Suno]Suno — plans and credits, the basis for the Suno v6 effective price. https://suno.com/pricing
  12. [MiniMax]MiniMax — pricing overview (H3 Max provider price; music API status). https://platform.minimax.io/docs/pricing/overview
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