Geographic Split: NA Owns ~71% of Package $ — Until Korea’s Mega-Plan Flips East Asia to ~66%

Our 2026 geography print showed that industrial-policy maps disagree: East Asia leads cumulative counts, North America owns major package dollars, and rest-of-world still dominates a busy monthly tape. The Q3 geography vintage then asked where the stock–package mismatch lives inside US states and EU members. The August concentration companion folded Korea’s mega-plan and Jun–Jul ownership stakes into the tip meters. This August 202608 geography lens answers the map question that follows: where does that sensitivity land — and how far down the map do equity stakes and battery dollars travel?

The dashboard above is a sensitivity + ownership + corridor board, not another AZ·TX·NY fab ladder. Toggle Sensitivity, Ownership, Instruments, and Battery / flow. On Sensitivity, flip Universe between core packages and +Korea mega. The punchline is deliberately two-map. Core packages still put North America near 71% of war-chest dollars (+50 pp versus its ~21% stock share). Alt packages that include Korea’s ~$951B headline flip East Asia to ~66% of a $1.58T universe. Ownership stakes and the USMCA battery corridor then show where fiscal capacity lands below the capital level.

The August scoreboard: which region leads depends on the meter

Read the table as a family of maps, not one slogan. Stock counts ask who intervenes how often. Core packages ask who can relocate a fab with a fiscal claim large enough to move a board. The alt universe asks what happens to those sentences when one outsized East Asian headline enters the war-chest ledger. Ownership asks where equity — not appropriations — lands. June flow asks where the latest month prints. Battery nodes ask where nearshore cell dollars concentrate inside North America.

Sensitivity: the Korea mega-plan flips the package map

Open Sensitivity. The mismatch bars are the geography twin of the August concentration Korea meter. On the core universe, North America’s package-minus-stock gap is about +50 pp; East Asia sits near −18 pp — frequent intervention, thinner disclosed package dollars. Flip Universe to +Korea mega and the signs reverse for the two poles: East Asia’s mismatch jumps to roughly +33 pp, North America compresses toward +7 pp, and Europe’s modest underweight deepens as the denominator expands to $1.58T.

The dual ladder beside the mismatch makes the same point without subtraction: rose stock bars still put East Asia first; cyan package bars put North America first only on the core ledger. After Korea’s mega-plan enters, cyan jumps to East Asia. That is the capital-allocation hinge for August. Desks that only watch IRA/CHIPS headlines underweight East Asian announced capacity once the mega-plan is in scope; desks that only watch the mega-plan headline underweight that the dollar is not comparable to IRA tax-expenditure scores or CHIPS appropriations. Both maps belong on the desk; neither should be quoted without naming the universe.

The sensitivity waterfall states the flip in four bars: NA core ~71%, East Asia core ~15%, NA after Korea ~28%, East Asia after Korea ~66%. Pair that panel with the jurisdiction scatter — the United States still sits far above the stock=package diagonal on core dollars — so the alt flip is a perimeter change, not a rewriting of US statutory war-chest arithmetic.

Ownership geography: equity is a China-subnational story

Switch to Ownership. The Jun–Jul tracked equity / LOI universe is only about $5.2B — small beside packages, large as a place signal. Anhui provincial and municipal funds lead near 28%, Guangdong near 22%, Shanghai / Yangtze near 13%. Together the top-three China nodes hold roughly 63% of the tracked stake tape; roll the donut to regions and East Asia clears most of the pie, with thinner US federal offtake/equity and EU IPCEI co-invest legs.

Treat this as ownership geography, not a full census of industrial-policy equity. It still matters for the same reason AZ·TX·NY matter on awards: “China” as a Teneo Big Three jurisdiction is not a uniform fiscal surface. Provincial fund complexes absorb a disproportionate share of the disclosed stake tip. Pair this panel with the August toolkit update on monthly flow — ownership is a place story about where balance-sheet industrial policy lands when the theme is EV, semis, and dual-use tech.

The meter board under the donut ranks top-region shares across stock, core packages, alt packages, ownership, June flow, and battery. It is the one-screen reminder that “who leads” is meter-dependent: East Asia on counts and (conditionally) alt dollars; North America on core packages; RoW on June flow; Michigan on the battery tip.

Instruments: barriers thicken in North America, subsidies in East Asia

Open Instruments. The 2025 toolkit mix rolled to regions shows how capitals intervene, not only where. East Asia’s within-region mix is subsidy-heavy (~48%), consistent with Big Fund–style industrial finance and provincial support. North America’s mix is barrier-heavier (~41% import barriers) beside a still-material subsidy share (~34%) — tariffs, procurement preferences, and IRA/CHIPS credits living in the same toolkit. Europe’s finance-control leg (~29%) is thicker than North America’s, reflecting state-aid and IPCEI-style mobilisation. Rest-of-world remains barrier-tilted on the estimated roll-up.

The composed stock-versus-package panel beside the stack keeps the Sensitivity universe toggle live: flip to +Korea mega and the cyan package line jumps on East Asia while stock bars stay fixed. That is intentional. Instrument mix answers toolkit geography; the package line answers war-chest geography. Confusing the two produces the false comfort that “everyone uses the same tools at the same scale.”

Battery / flow: USMCA nodes and a RoW-majority tape

Toggle Battery / flow. The nearshore battery corridor tip (~$52B tracked) is the August geography addition that Q3’s semis-heavy US-state ladder did not own. Michigan leads near 22%, Ontario near 19%, Texas near 14% — top-three MI · ON · TX about 54%. Filter Nodes to Canada or Mexico to isolate provincial and Bajío nearshore legs. This is inside-bloc package geography for cells and packs under IRA / USMCA offtake logic, not a full North American industrial-policy census.

The May→Jul flow path beside the ladder reprints the humility check from the August toolkit update: stock concentration is not flow concentration. June’s disclosed geography still leaves about 62% of interventions to rest-of-world even as July volume jumped ~25% versus May. Narrative that “only three capitals matter” fails the monthly map even when it roughly fits the cumulative stock and core package-dollar maps. The amber total line rising into July while the RoW area stays dominant is the visual proof.

Who is exposed — and what would rewrite the map

Exposed on the core package map: desks that treat East Asia’s stock lead as dollar capacity; European strategy decks that equate Teneo Big Three membership with US-scale war chests; clients who quote “industrial policy is everywhere” without separating count stock from package dollars.

Exposed on the alt package map: IRA/CHIPS-centric narratives that ignore Korea’s mega-plan perimeter; East Asia capacity stories that treat the $951B headline as dollar-for-dollar comparable to US tax-expenditure scores; HHI readers who do not restate the universe when the mega-plan enters.

Exposed on ownership geography: analysts who stop at “China ~24% of stock” without provincial fund nodes; equity desks that miss Anhui·Guangdong·Shanghai as the tip of the Jun–Jul stake tape; EU IPCEI readers who confuse member co-invest legs with US-scale federal offtake.

Exposed on battery / flow: semis-only US-state maps that miss MI·ON·TX as the battery tip; USMCA supply-chain models that underweight Ontario and Nuevo León; narrative that Big Three headlines dominate monthly counts when RoW still clears ~62% in June.

What would rewrite the map: a restated package universe that permanently includes Korea-comparable envelopes for China/Japan without the mega-plan caveat; Jun–Jul ownership disclosures that push China subnational share below ~40% of tracked stakes; a battery corridor tip that dilutes MI·ON·TX below ~40%; a monthly roundup where Big Three blocs clear a majority of interventions. None of those clear this August geography vintage. The continental architecture is sticky; the Korea sensitivity and ownership nodes are the new meters beside it.

Caveats and methodology

• Regional stock shares roll Teneo Big Three (~63%) plus estimated Japan/Korea/RoW splits into four continental bucketsgeography reconstructions, not a new NIPO microdata extract.
• Package USD figures are statutory appropriations, mobilisation targets, state-aid approvals, or tax-credit scoresnot outlays-to-date. Do not sum them as simultaneous fiscal cost.
• Korea mega-plan (~$951B) is a disclosed headline used only in the alternate package universe; it is not dollar-for-dollar comparable to IRA TE / CHIPS appropriations.
• Ownership stakes follow GTA Jun–Jul 2026 Roundups (equity LOIs / funds) inside a ~$5.2B tracked tipa lower-bound geography, not a full industrial-equity census.
• Instrument mix rolls Teneo Fig.2 (2025) toolkit shares to regions; within-region percentages are analytical, not a second disclosed table.
• Battery corridor nodes are estimated from public IRA / USMCA / provincial notices inside a ~$52B tipnot full North American EV outlays.
• June 2026 bloc shares are disclosed in the GTA Monthly Roundup; May/Jul totals are disclosed without matching geographyregional paths for those months are editorial.
• Pair with Q3 geography for US/EU subnational fab ladders; this post owns the Korea sensitivity, ownership nodes, and battery corridor.

The shareable takeaway

In the August 202608 geography vintage, East Asia still leads stock counts (~33%), North America still owns ~71% of core package dollars, and rest-of-world still dominates June’s monthly tape (~62%). Add Korea’s mega-plan and East Asia flips to ~66% of an alt $1.58T universe. Ownership stakes cluster in Anhui·Guangdong·Shanghai; the USMCA battery tip clusters in MI·ON·TX. Concentration told you the tip is thick and sensitive to Korea. Geography tells you which regions own which tip — and that the answer flips when the universe changes.

Related reading: Q3 geography · Geography 2026 · August concentration · H-NIPO research · August toolkit update.